Understanding Chinese Thinking, Policy, and Behavior

AMERICA AT THE TAIWAN STRAIT: FIVE SCENARIOS
- Lynn T. White III (pp. 5-40)

Degrees of freedom for national U.S. policy in the Taiwan Strait can be parsed by estimating the future likelihoods and time order of uncertain events-such as Taiwan independence, Chinese liberalization, truce, a Chinese attack, and U.S. choices-and not just by applying the standard paradigms of international relations theory (e.g., realist, liberal, constructivist). Ordered time scenarios can explore all sizes of collectivity, and they can take account of actors' contexts as well as their self-identifications. This article finds evidence that American policy is less "ambiguous" than officials discreetly describe it. The United States is now defending Taiwanese liberalism as Chinese, and Beijing elites also might decide to liberalize if they avoid holding direct national elections before they do more to separate domestic powers. U.S. policy can prevent a later Sino-American war if it can influence the time order of specifiable contingencies. Key words: U.S. foreign policy in Asia, U.S.-China relations, Taiwan

Proponents of the "China threat" theory argue that it is inconceivable for China to have a peaceful rise; a superpower China will inevitably be a threat to the United States. This article analyzes the military and economic aspects of the "China threat" theory from theoretical, methodological, and strategic points of view. The theory's flaws are in its assumptions, which this article tackles by providing counter examples as well as by highlighting external and internal problems facing China that can complicate its rise to great-power status. In addition, the "China threat" theory is based on linear projection and imperfect historical analogies that are as misleading conceptually as they are strategically counterproductive to Sino-American strategic relations. This, of course, is not to argue that China poses no threat; it is, however, to suggest that the nature of any threat is far more nuanced than the "China threat" theorists claim it to be. Key words: East Asian Security, U.S.-China relations

CHINA, MULTINATIONAL CORPORATIONS, AND GLOBALIZATION: BEIJING AND MICROSOFT BATTLE OVER THE OPENING OF CHINA'S GATES
- Jean-Marc F. Blanchard (pp. 67-102)

There are two perspectives on the relationship between states and multinational corporations (MNCs). One, the "state in command" perspective, sees states as dominant, with globalization only worsening the situation. The other-the "MNCs in command" view-sees MNCs as all-powerful as a result of their assets. Globalization from that perspective is not necessarily bad and may actually empower states against multinational firms. China's dealings with Microsoft Corporation from the early 1990s to the present show that neither perspective is accurate. China got some of what it wanted while Microsoft got some of what it wanted. In lieu of these approaches, a third model is offered here-a modified bargaining power perspective that focuses on the balance of needs, alliances, and the institutional environment as important factors shaping the bargaining dynamic between China and multinational enterprises. A case study of the China-Microsoft model demonstrates the usefulness of the model. Key words: China, globalization, economic development in Asia

POLITICS, CULTURE, AND SCHOLARLY RESPONSIBILITY IN CHINA: TOWARD A CULTURALLY SENSITIVE ANALYTICAL APPROACH
- Yongjin Zhang (pp. 103-124)

The relationship between knowledge and power has always been acutely problematic, particularly in the study of international relations. Inspired by an address by Ann Tickner, this article urges the need to develop culturally sensitive approaches to the question of scholarly responsibility in the realm of power in different historical, cultural, social, and intellectual contexts. Taking international relations scholarship in China as an example, I suggest that the expanding political space and the weakness of critical scholarship in China, combined with a historically induced intellectual predicament and inherited cultural legacies, constitute a useful analytical framework for making sense of Chinese understandings of scholarly responsibility. This framework also helps to understand the perpetual agony of Chinese intellectuals in coming to terms with the turbulent relations between knowledge and power in China today. Key words: China, sociopolitical development

JAPAN'S CHANGING SECURITY NORMS AND PERCETPTIONS SINCE THE 1990s
- Sook-Jong Lee (pp. 125-146)

Changes in Japanese security policy and institutions over the past decade and a half nullify cultural and institutionalist views of Japan's postwar pacifism. The boundary of the Self-Defense Force (SDF)'s activity-which had been understood exclusively as defending Japan's own territorial integrity-was expanded to UN peacekeeping activities in the early 1990s, and through a series of policy and institutional changes was expanded further to rear support for U.S. troops in regional contingencies and antiterrorist actions. These changes have been accompanied by significant shifts in Japanese attitudes on defense and security issues. Despite the public's fear of entrapment in war through the alliance relationship with the United States, most Japanese believe that Japan needs to strengthen its defense capability through closer military ties with its alliance partner, and that it is better to revise the peace constitution in order to legitimize the SDF and provide it with military flexibility. Key words: Japan, East Asian security, U.S.-Japan relations

NAVIGATING A TURBULENT OCEAN: INDONESIA'S WORLDVIEW AND FOREIGN POLICY
- Paige Johnson Tan (pp. 147-181)

This article explores the definition, origins, and meaning of Indonesia's worldview for contemporary international relations. It finds that Indonesian perceptions of the country's world role and the realities of its capacities are in tension. Apparent sharp breaks in foreign policy from one regime to the next mask underlying continuities in the country's view of the world and Indonesia's place in it. By virtue of its size, location, history, principled behavior, and rich culture, Indonesia is entitled to a leadership role in the region and the world. For Soekarno, the father of the nation, this was political-revolutionary. For Soeharto, this was economic. For contemporary presidents, the inspiration to leadership still exists, even if the capacity to lead is not always present. Key words: Indonesia, foreign policy in East Asia, democracy-East Asia

Commentary

JAPANESE ASSESSMENTS OF CHINA'S MILITARY DEVELOPMENT
- Yasuhiro Matsuda (pp. 183-193)