Prospects for Change in China

RETURNED STUDENTS AND POLITICAL CHANGE IN CHINA
- He Li (pp. 5 - 29)

This article provides an overview of China's returned students and their impact on political change in China. The article analyzes how the returned students promote political reform and what changes they have brought to the political climate. The argument here is that quite a number of persons who have returned from studies abroad are in important positions and many of them serve as carriers of Western values. A large number of Chinese returnees endorse incremental political liberalization rather than radical democratic transformation. If China's political and economic conditions continue to improve, more students will return home. In the long run, they will play a more significant role in transforming China. (Key words: China, returned students, economic reform, political reform)

EXPLORING CAPITALIST DEVELOPMENT IN GREATER CHINA: A SYNTHESIS
- Christopher A. McNally and Yin-Wah Chu (pp. 31 - 64)

This article explores the dynamics of capitalist development in the three political economies of Greater China. We have two purposes in mind. First, we hope to produce a fresh understanding of Mainland China's economic rise, interpreting it as associated with the process of late capitalist development. Second, we use a comparison with Taiwan and Hong Kong to examine whether China has converged with or diverged from four salient aspects of late capitalist development: the character of state ruler incentives, or the "will to develop"; the nature and structure of state-society relations; the role of business enterprises and business networks in supporting initial capitalist accumulation; and the transition of state-business interactions over time from mutual distrust to engagement and cooperation. In so doing, we hope to use comparative analysis to integrate the crucial case of China into broader inquiries on the nature and logic of capitalist development. (Key words: China, economic development in Asia)

"SUPER PARADOX" OR "LENINIST INTEGRATION": THE POLITICS OF LEGISLATING ARTICLE 23 OF HONG KONG'S BASIC LAW
- Wong Yiu-chung (pp. 65 - 95)

Liao Zhengzhi, the late director of the Office of Hong Kong and Macau Affairs, once said that on the resumption of Hong Kong's sovereignty, Hong Kong needed only to change the flag and British governor. While the press was full of doomsday prophecies about Hong Kong's future, there was a camp of "super-paradox" theorists who genuinely believed that Hong Kong's status quo would not change after the handover. The authoritarian one party-dominated PRC, they asserted, could absorb a free-flowing Hong Kong without changing the nature of an open society. Contrary to doomsday prophets and "super-paradox" theorists, this article argues that while the doomsday prophecy was groundless, important institutional changes did take place even though they were barely noticed. It is argued, by using the example of the legislation of Article 23, that a gradual approach has been adopted by the Chinese Communist Party to change the fundamentals of Hong Kong's polity, a strategy that I call "Leninist integration." (Key words: China, communist parties, human rights and democracy in East Asia)

Cooperation and Integration in East Asia

CHINA-ASEAN COOPERATION AGAINST ILLICIT DRUGS FROM THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE
- Sheng Lijun (pp. 97 - 126)

This article studies the cooperation mechanisms between China and ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations) to control drug trafficking in the Golden Triangle. Cooperation currently falls into three categories: under the framework of ASEAN+1 (China) and ASEAN+3 (China, Japan, and South Korea); under the framework of Greater Mekong Sub-Region (GMS) cooperation; and between the local governments of China and Myanmar, Laos, and Vietnam. The article explores deficiencies in this cooperation and ways it can be improved. (Key words: China-ASEAN relations, drug trafficking, East Asian security)

THE LINK BETWEEN DOMESTIC POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS AND ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISES
- Jung-In Jo (pp. 127 - 145)

Political factors are rarely systematically studied as a condition triggering a financial crisis. Although such factors have been hypothesized to influence states to implement structural adjustment policies, the systematic link between political conditions and economic crises is still poorly understood. This study claims that the causes of crises cannot be attributed solely to market forces; they may be the consequence of different political institutions. The findings demonstrate that regime types matter in the timing of financial crisis. As well, the low level of democracy in Asia does not facilitate the duration of economic stability. Rather, these countries are more prone to a financial crisis. (Key words: Economic development in Asia, East Asian politics)

JAPAN'S COLLABORATIVE ROLE IN THE INSTITUTIONALIZATION OF ASEAN+3: TOWARD AN EAST ASIAN INTEGRATION REGIME
- Chang-Gun Park (pp. 147 - 177)

This article examines the significance of Japan's collaborative role in promoting regional integration in post-cold war East Asia, focusing on the institutionalization of the ASEAN+3 (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations+ China, Japan, and South Korea) from 1999 to 2005. This empirical case is essential to explain the main framework for the diffusion of regional institutionalization, which draws attention to Japan's collaborative role in the development of an effective institutional arrangement in East Asia. The ASEAN+3 process is the dominant engine for the formation of an East Asian Integration Regime (EAIR). Since the Joint Statement on East Asian Cooperation in 1999, Japan has taken advantage of changing circumstances to carve out a collaborative role in promoting the institutionalization of ASEAN+3. Seen in this light, the discussion seeks to explain Japan's regional projects in accordance with the rules and decision-making procedures of that group. (Key words: Japan, East Asia, ASEAN+3, East Asian Integration Regime [EAIR])

Commentary

STABILITY AND COMPLEXITY IN ASIA-PACIFIC SECURITY AFFAIRS
- Robert Ayson (pp. 179 - 192)